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Monday, October 24, 2005

BCS BS

USC has dropped from the #1 spot in the BCS because of the computers.

I want to see how good the computers really are at picking winners. Although, so far it looks like they're better than the human polls. But that's merely one week...I am determined to prove that the computers SUCK.

From this point on I'll be keeping a record of upsets for the average computer ranking, the AP poll ranking, and the Coaches' poll ranking (but not the Harris Interactive).

Here's the way it works, the difference in the rankings is the points each poll is assigned for an upset. Here's where it gets a little sketchy, but I think it is relatively fair, an unranked team will be given a ranking of #30. That's not TOO big a penalty for an unranked team winning.

So, an example, if Texas was #2 in the AP poll and #1 in the BCS computers and was upset by unranked Nebraska then the AP poll would get 28 points added to it and the computers 29. The team with the most points at the end of the season is the worst predictor of future success.

There were two upsets last weekend:
Northwestern (AP: NR; Coach: NR; Computer: NR) over Michigan St. (AP: 22; Coach: 22; Computer: NR)
North Carolina(AP: NR; Coach: NR; Computer: NR) over Virginia (AP: 23; Coach: 24, Computer: NR)

Current Upset Standings
AP: 15
Coach: 14
Computer: 0

Games To Watch This Saturday

Michigan (AP: 25; Coach: NR; Computer: 21) at Northwestern (AP: 21; Coach: 23; Computer: 19)
Prediction: An upset hurts the human polls more than the computers

Other games are coming up in future weeks. Currently I think the BCS computers may be overly generous to...


Cal (AP: 24; Coach: 21; Computer: NR) at Oregon (AP: 14; Coach: 16; Computer: 9)
Prediction: Cal upset for all three polls (although the computers have Oregon way higher than the human polls at #9)

Colorado (#20) -- Lookout for Mizzou
West Virginia (#11) -- Cincy, Pitt, and South Florida don't strike fear into anyone's hearts

It is a little difficult of a task, for instance the team with the #24 computer average doesn't even appear in the BCS. I think it may be Missouri from going through the individual computer rankings, which would actually hurt my Mizzou over Colorado prediction 2 weeks from now.

A Cal upset of Oregon will be a huge mark against the computers (they have no clue Kellen is out for the year).

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